top of page
  • Writer's pictureCheckers

The Degen Bet Chronicles: Week 12 Round 2

Welcome back to The Degen Bet Chronicles! Our Thanksgiving slip didn't pan out as hoped, serving as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of sports betting. This time, we are leaning more on intuition and personal insights. Remember, the Degen Bet is about both securing the big win and enjoying the process. Let's dive into this week's picks:


Diontae Johnson: 60+ Alt Rec Yards (+130)


Johnson, a skilled route runner renowned for consistently finding openings, remains a dependable target. Despite the Steelers' poor quarterback situation, his history of reaching or surpassing 60+ receiving yards is promising. His ability to create separation and receive significant targets, along with the Bengals' defensive track record against receivers, supports this choice.


Mike Evans: 70+ Alt Rec Yards (+110)

Evans, a top-tier wide receiver, is anticipated to rebound from a quieter game against the 49ers. His history of high-yardage games suggests he can surpass the 70-yard mark.


AT Perry: 25+ Alt Rec Yards (+100)

With Michael Thomas on IR, Perry is poised for more opportunities in the passing game. This pick is based on the potential upside of Perry's expanded role.


James Cook: 25+ Rec Yards (+155)

Cook plays a crucial role in the Buffalo Bills' offense. With the Eagles' defense likely focusing on primary threats like Diggs, Cook's pass-catching ability could add the needed versatility to the Bills' offense.


Michael Mayer: 25+ Alt Rec Yards (+100)

Mayer has consistently been close to or exceeding this yardage mark in recent games. The presence of talented receivers like Devante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in the offense, drawing the attention of the Chiefs' defense, makes this a reasonable expectation.


Same Game Parlays (SGP):


Jaguars at Texans (+274)

Tank Dell: 70+ Alt Rec Yards

Dell's explosive playmaking, combined with Stroud's quarterbacking, increases his chances of surpassing 70+ receiving yards.


Calvin Ridley: 60+ Alt Rec Yards

Ridley's potential for high-ceiling performances, particularly after his prolonged absence, makes this bet especially appealing. As the most talented pass catcher in the offense, I'm biased towards expecting more ceiling games from Ridley towards the year's end.


Browns at Broncos (+325)

Amari Cooper: 50+ Alt Rec Yards

Cooper's consistent performance, with few exceptions, makes this a solid bet. Regardless of who's quarterbacking, I'm confident in taking the over.


Samaje Perine: 25+ Alt Rec Yards

Despite initial reservations, the unchanged line and attractive odds make this bet fitting for the Degen Bet this week. Anticipating Russ Wilson's reliance on check-down options against the Browns' stout defense, and considering Perine's performance last week, the Broncos might look to get him more involved.


Slip total: +78208


Additional Insights:

I am less confident in the selection of Mike Evans for 70+ alt rec yards. While his track record suggests this isn't out of reach, it's a cautious pick. AT Perry is a fandom pick, adding an extra layer of excitement to the betting experience, though there might be statistically stronger options.


Initially hesitant about Samaje Perine's 25+ alt rec yards, I was concerned the line would move and hesitant to chase past performance. However, the favorable line and the potential for check-down plays against a stout Browns defense make this bet appealing, aligning with the Degen Bet spirit of calculated risks and promising odds.


Our final odds may be slightly below our usual target, but I'm taking advantage of a $3 free bet promo to place this wager. Note that the Ridley line has moved. While the 70+ alt line is less appealing, it's still worth considering.


To boost the odds, consider adding Quinton Johnston (QJ) for 40+ alt rec yards. I admit this pick is biased -- I think he is a talented young player the Chargers need to involve more to open up their offense. My investment in dynasty leagues influences this pick, but it could be the wildcard that elevates our slip.


This might also be the week Johnathan Mingo hits his alt 40+ rec yards against the Titans. He's been fairly involved this season and has had 4 or more targets in the last four weeks. A breakout game seems imminent, and it could very well be this time against the Titans. I'm including this in a ticket I'm making – feel free to ask me about it, and I’ll share the details!


Success in sport bets often involves a mix of analysis, instinct, and luck. This week, we're fully embracing this blend, leaning a bit more towards the one side. If you wish to tailor the slip to align with your insights or seek to enhance the odds further, feel free to do so. Don't forget to share your picks with me on Twitter, @Degen_Checkers. Let's see how our strategies unfold and edge closer to that big win.

11 views0 comments

Comentarios


bottom of page