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Degen Bet Chronicles: Week 9 Review

Last week's degen bet encountered an early setback with Rashee Rice failing to hit over 50 yards, a surprising letdown given the Chiefs' explosive offense and Rice's potential as a receiver. This was a deviation from the usual strategy which relies on consistent yardage producers. Despite this misstep, the rest of the betting strategy was solid, except for Dallas Goedert, who did not score a touchdown. Goedert's TD inclusion, a last-minute decision, broke from the usual approach of avoiding the less predictable touchdown bets.


The bet slip for the week was as follows selections:

SGP Bets:

  • Buccaneers vs. Texans: Nico Collins over 50+ alt rec yards, Mike Evans over 70+ alt rec yards at +232 odds, a choice based on the Texans' defense susceptibilities. (hit)

  • Dallas Goedert SGP: A bet on 50+ alt rec yards and a TD at +400 odds, leveraging Goedert's favorable matchup against Dallas's defense. (Miss on the TD; hit on the yards)

Single Bets:

  • Mark Andrews: Selected for 60+ alt rec yards against Seattle's defense, which typically yields high yards to tight ends, at +130 odds. (hit)

  • Michael Pittman: Aimed for 70+ alt rec yards, betting on his ability to exploit Carolina's zone-heavy defense at +130 odds. (miss by 6 yards)

  • Alvin Kamara: Originally bet for 40+ alt rec yards with positive odds of +100, reflecting his consistent performance level and the defensive matchup. (hit)

The slip aimed for a total of +34,602, which could potentially turn $3 into $1,041.07.

The hits show the method works; the misses show the rules are right -- avoid TD bets because TDs are a bit random. The Pittman miss we ride with. 6 yards is nothing and well within an acceptable range. The Rice pick was an anticipation of more work for a young, talented player. The method says don't do that, so moving forward we won't.

After the Rice bet missed, a revised bet slip was made, which unfortunately included an oversight and also broke the "no TD bet rule": a CeeDee Lamb touchdown bet was added, and the odds for Alvin Kamara were now negative, contrary to the original successful bet placement. This slip, while similar, introduced the extra TD bet, again straying from the method's guidelines against the unpredictability of touchdown scoring.

As we move forward, the strategy is to reaffirm the established betting method, focusing on alt-yards based on defensive matchups, and striving for positive odds that align with the players' anticipated production. No touchdown bets will be included in the degen slip to ensure strict adherence to the method. The use of SGPs as part of the overall parlay ticket, which was a successful odds booster when within our method, will continue to be employed. With no rush and no last-minute shots, each bet will be placed with thorough and deliberate consideration, staying true to our disciplined approach.


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