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Degen Bet Chronicles: Going Back To The Basics On Thanksgiving Day

Welcome back to The Degen Bet Chronicles! After a sizzling start where we hit over 50% of our slips, we've experienced a slight dip in our success rates. But fear not, as we're recalibrating and going back to the basics that initially drove our success. This means a shift in our approach: analyzing lines before diving into matchups, as opposed to our previous method of matchup-first analysis. This adjustment, we believe, will reveal more favorable lines.


Take the example of the Samaje Perine bet we placed on a test slip. Perine's role in the Broncos' offense as a low-volume pass-catching back, averaging around 25 yards a week, hit with plenty of room to spare. This showed that his consistency made him a good option. However, last week's spike in his receiving yards (over 60) signals a temporary shift in the betting line, so we'll avoid it until it stabilizes, much like stock market dynamics.


One bet like this I'm looking at this week is Johan Dotson with 3.5+ receptions. Dallas has an amazing defense, but Dotson operates out of the slot – where teams have found some success against this defense. I'll take the over here. He gets 3-4 catches a week, so in a tough matchup, I anticipate Howell will lean on Dotson and Logan Thomas, as tight ends typically perform well against Dallas. Thomas's line of 4.5+ catches is also reasonable. However, I expect Howell and the Commanders to look to get Dotson involved more, especially since Dallas likely knows their weakness against TEs. I'll take the over on both Thomas’s yards and Dotson’s 37.5 receiving yards.


The Slip:


Packers @ Lions (+950)

  • Jayden Reed 44.5+ Receiving Yards: Reed's recent performance is a strong indicator of his potential against the Lions. With at least 4 catches and 40 yards in 3 of the last 4 games, his increasing involvement, particularly against a Lions team vulnerable to slot receivers, makes this line quite attractive. Reed's season-high 69% snap rate indicates a growing reliance on his talent, suggesting a continued upward trajectory in his performance.

  • Jahmyr Gibbs Alt Receiving 34.5+: Gibbs has consistently surpassed 35 receiving yards in the last four games, making this line seem quite achievable. His role in the Lions' offense, particularly in the passing game, has been increasing, and given the Packers' defensive struggles, it's unlikely they'll significantly hinder his performance. Opting out of the rushing yards line is a cautious move, focusing on Gibbs' more reliable receiving stats.

  • AJ Dillon 54.5+ Rushing Yards: With no strong alternatives for the Packers' ground game, Dillon is expected to receive the bulk of the workload. His average of 16.2 touches and 58.2 total yards in games as the primary back suggests he's capable of hitting this mark, making it a solid bet.

Washington Football Team @ Cowboys (+1400)

  • Brandin Cooks 42.5+ Receiving Yards: Cooks has been consistent, either surpassing or nearly reaching this mark in recent games. His increased route run rate and target share since Week 6 highlight his importance in the offense. With CeeDee Lamb drawing the primary focus of the WAS defense, Cooks is likely to see more action.

  • Logan Thomas 44.5+ Alt Receiving Yards: Tight ends often perform well against Dallas, and Thomas's involvement in the Commanders' offense has been consistent. While the Dallas defense is strong, their slight vulnerability to tight ends makes this bet worth considering.

  • Johan Dotson 3.5 Catches and 36.5+ Alt Receiving Yards: Dotson's role in the offense and his potential to get involved, especially with Dallas focusing on McLaurin, makes this line appealing. His talent and increasing involvement suggest he could easily hit these targets.

SF 49ers @ Seattle

  • Deebo Samuel 55.5+ Alt Receiving Yards: Samuel's performance this season has been somewhat inconsistent, but he has hit or nearly hit this mark in most games. The 49ers' offense has been strong, and a mid-range performance from Samuel should be enough to cover this line.

  • Tyler Lockett 59.5+: Lockett's significant target share since Week 8 and his matchup against a weaker part of the 49ers' defense make this line a bit risky but potentially rewarding. The 49ers' strong defense could mean Seattle needs to rely on their passing game more, giving Lockett opportunities.

  • JSN 43.5+ Alt Receiving Yards: Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s increasing target share and the Seahawks' need to diversify their offensive threats make this a somewhat optimistic but feasible target. His role as an understudy to Lockett and DK Metcalf can provide unexpected gains in receiving yards.

Slip Total: +173150


Reflections:

There are plenty of great options this week. I also like Jameson Williams, but his line wasn't active when I was making this. Brian Robinson could be a hit this time around, so I may make another ticket that trims some picks and adds in others to see where things land. I'll make that slip late tonight but wanted this to get out so anyone can take this and adjust their ticket based on their data or gut feelings. Let me know what you all pick this week on Twitter (x.com) @degen_checkers! Anything that helps get us closer to that big win. Good luck out there!

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